TL;DR: Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates now require airlines in the EU and UK to blend increasing percentages of SAF—starting at 2% in 2025 and rising to 70% by 2050—while the US relies on tax credits rather than mandates. Compliance hinges on certified feedstocks and blending limits, so airlines and suppliers must secure supply chains and book-and-claim accounting now to avoid penalties.
The Regulatory Landscape
The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation regulation took effect in January 2025, mandating a 2% SAF blend at EU airports, climbing to 6% by 2030, 20% by 2035, and 70% by 2050. The UK’s SAF Mandatory scheme mirrors this trajectory, starting at 2% in 2025 and reaching 10% by 2030. Unlike Europe’s binding requirements, the United States has leaned on incentives—the Inflation Reduction Act’s blender’s tax credit and the GREET model for emissions accounting—though several states are exploring mandate-style policies. Asia-Pacific is moving too: Japan targets 10% SAF by 2030, and Singapore plans a 1% levy-based mandate starting in 2026.
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Technical Specifications and Feedstocks
SAF must meet ASTM D7566 certification, which currently covers pathways including HEFA (used cooking oil and animal fats), alcohol-to-jet, and Fischer-Tropsch. Blending is capped at 50% with conventional Jet A-1 under ASTM D1655. Feedstock availability is the binding constraint: HEFA supply is limited, and scaling depends on advanced pathways and e-fuels (power-to-liquid), which ReFuelEU requires to reach 35% of SAF by 2050. Sustainability certification under ISCC or RSB is mandatory to prove lifecycle emissions savings of at least 65% versus fossil kerosene.
Industry Impact
SAF currently costs two to four times conventional jet fuel, and mandates will pass costs to passengers through ticket levies. Airlines face “uplift obligations” at EU airports, meaning they must purchase SAF for flights departing the bloc—even foreign carriers. Book-and-claim systems allow certificates to be traded, but physical supply at hubs like Amsterdam, Frankfurt, and Heathrow remains tight. Producers such as Neste, World Energy, and a wave of new entrants are expanding capacity, yet announced projects still fall short of 2030 targets. Expect consolidation, offtake agreements, and higher compliance costs—but also a measurable drop in aviation’s carbon footprint.
FAQ
Q: What happens if an airline misses a SAF mandate?
A: Penalties vary by jurisdiction—the EU imposes fines and potential operating restrictions, while the UK uses a buy-out mechanism—so non-compliance is costly and increasingly audited.
Q: Can airlines use book-and-claim to meet mandates?
A: Book-and-claim is accepted in voluntary markets and some schemes, but physical blending requirements at mandated airports generally require actual fuel delivery, not just certificates.
Q: Is SAF truly sustainable?
A: Certified SAF must cut lifecycle emissions by at least 65%, but critics warn that feedstock competition with food and land use means sustainability depends heavily on pathway and certification rigor.
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